GACE

Generalized Adaptive Capped Estimator
A stable, deterministic forecasting engine for weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly data.

Overview

GACE provides a transparent, tuning-free forecasting method based on hybrid growth signals and adaptive asymmetric caps.
It extends deterministic capped-growth forecasting to support weekly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly time series with optional seasonal scaling.

The method is designed for:

• demand forecasting
  
• operational forecasting
  
• financial and portfolio forecasting
  
• budgeting and scenario planning

The philosophy: Stable + Interpretable + Fast
No nonlinear optimization. No stochastic fitting. Fully deterministic.

Features

• Supports weekly / monthly / quarterly / yearly data
  
• Hybrid growth signals (year-over-year, short-term, rolling, drift)
  
• Volatility-aware asymmetric caps
  
• Seasonal and non-seasonal modes
  
• Deterministic, extremely fast computation
  
• plot_gace() for visualization
  
• Lightweight dependencies

Installation

Install the released version from CRAN:

install.packages("GACE")

Example

library(GACE)

set.seed(1)
y <- ts(rnorm(60, mean = 100, sd = 10), frequency = 12)

fc <- gace_forecast(y, periods = 12, freq = "month")
plot_gace(fc)